Rohilkhand — Bareilly, Rampur, Moradabad, Budaun, Pilibhit, Shahjahanpur, Sambhal — is Uttar Pradesh’s most closely watched region in every election because of its Muslim vote. With 50 to 55 assembly seats, its Muslim population is far above the state average of 19.5%: Sambhal about 52%, Rampur about 50%, Moradabad about 47%, Bareilly about 30%, Pilibhit about 25%. In 2017 the BJP won 38 of 55 seats in the phase covering the region; in 2022 the SP fought back to 29–29. In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls the SP won 7 of 11 seats here. The 2027 battle is about the social engineering that could decide all of UP.
- 50–55 assembly seats across 11 Lok Sabha seats.
- 2017: BJP 38 of 55 in the phase; SP 15. 2022: BJP 29, SP 29.
- In 57 Muslim-dominated seats (West UP + Rohilkhand + Terai), the BJP led in 29 and the SP in 25 in 2022 — the BJP down 8 from 2017.
- 2024 Lok Sabha: SP 7, BJP 4 of 11.
- The Azam Khan factor: in jail, yet central to Rampur-Sambhal politics.
- AIMIM contested 6 seats in 2022; a wider 2027 contest threatens the SP’s consolidation.
Data Snapshot:
*Table 1: Rohilkhand Assembly 2017 vs 2022 (55 seats of Phase 2)
| Election | BJP | SP | Congress |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 38 | 15 (SP-Congress alliance) | 2 |
| 2022 | 29 | 29 (10 Muslim candidates won) | 0 |
*Table 2: Muslim Population Share (estimated)
| District | Muslim Share | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| Sambhal | ~52% | SP fortress; AIMIM entry |
| Rampur | ~50% | Azam Khan’s bastion |
| Moradabad | ~47% | SP clean sweep 2022 |
| Bareilly | ~30% | BJP-SP close fights |
| Pilibhit | ~25% | Kurmi (Gangwar) decisive |
| Budaun | ~20% | Yadav-Muslim alliance |
*Table 3: Lok Sabha 2024 — Rohilkhand (11 seats): BJP 4, SP 7 (BJP had 9–10 in 2019)
*Table 4: The 57 Muslim-Dominated Seats Trend
| Election | BJP | SP |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 37 | 17 |
| 2022 | 29 | 25 |
The BJP lost 8 of these seats; the SP gained 8 — a direct transfer driven by Muslim consolidation.
Main Analysis:
Three layers explain Rohilkhand. First, Muslim consolidation. In 2017 this vote split between SP-Congress, BSP and AIMIM, and the BJP won 38 seats. In 2022 the SP largely consolidated it — 10 of its 15 wins in this phase in 2017 were Muslim candidates, rising to 29 seats in 2022 — and the consolidation held into 2024. The open question for 2027 is whether it holds again. If the AIMIM and BSP field strong candidates, the vote splits and the BJP benefits; the BJP’s strategy since 2022 has explicitly counted on this split.
The second layer is the Kurmi vote, especially the Gangwar community in Bareilly-Pilibhit-Shahjahanpur. Traditionally with the BJP, a section shifted to the SP in 2024 — visible in the booth data from Pilibhit and Bareilly rural. Leaders like Santosh Gangwar’s discontent with the BJP is the political surface of a deeper social drift. The third layer is the Dalit vote, especially Jatavs: a large section went to the BJP in 2017, and with the BSP weakening it split between the SP and BJP in 2022–24. The SP’s PDA (Pichhda-Dalit-Alpsankhyak) formula is an attempt to bind all three layers — Muslims plus a section of Kurmis plus Dalits.
Historical Context:
Named after the Rohilla Pathans, Rohilkhand’s Ganga-Jamuni culture has always kept Muslim politics central. In the 1990s the SP dominated — Mulayam Singh Yadav made Rampur’s Azam Khan his closest aide. The 2014 Modi wave gave the BJP 10 of 11 Lok Sabha seats here (except Budaun). The same wave delivered 38 of 55 assembly seats in 2017. In 2019 Azam Khan won Rampur Lok Sabha for the SP, signalling the comeback. In 2022, the farmer agitation’s spillover plus sympathy for the jailed Azam Khan took the SP to 29 seats — a clean sweep near Moradabad, while the BJP snatched Milak (SC) and Bilaspur in Rampur. In 2024 the SP won 7 of 11 Lok Sabha seats. No party has a permanent fortress here; every wave has been reversed within five years.
Current Political Situation:
The ECI is yet to announce 2027 dates, but the ground is volatile. Azam Khan remains in jail, yet remains central — the BJP projects him as the symbol of “appeasement,” the SP as the symbol of “persecution.” The BJP made inroads in Rampur bypolls after 2022 but lost them back in 2024. In Bareilly, Kurmi leaders’ growing entry into the SP could be decisive. The Shahi Jama Masjid dispute in Sambhal has fuelled communal polarisation whose electoral effect will show in 2027. The SP’s organisation in Moradabad-Amroha is at its strongest since 2012.
Regional Analysis:
Bareilly belt (Bareilly, Pilibhit, Shahjahanpur — 15–18 seats): The Kurmi-Brahmin-Muslim triangle. BJP strong in Bareilly city; SP holds rural Bareilly, Baheri, Mirganj. Pilibhit faces a new battle after the Varun Gandhi factor ended. The BJP suffered booth-level losses here in 2024.
Rampur belt (5–6 seats): Muslim-majority, Azam Khan’s bastion. In 2022, Rampur city, Suar and Chamraua went to the SP; Milak (SC) and Bilaspur to the BJP. The role of Azam Khan’s family in 2027 will be decisive — a sympathy wave or a leadership vacuum.
Moradabad-Amroha-Sambhal (12–14 seats): The SP’s 2022 clean sweep zone near Moradabad. Sambhal’s 52% Muslim population makes it an SP fort, but AIMIM’s entry risks splitting votes. The Gurjar-Muslim equation in Amroha is the swing.
Budaun fringe: The Yadav-Muslim alliance is the SP’s strength; it won Budaun Lok Sabha in 2024.
Party-wise Position:
The BJP’s strength is urban Hindu votes plus a large section of Kurmis plus non-Jatav Dalits. Its weakness is the complete polarisation of Muslim votes toward the SP and Kurmi discontent. The SP’s strength is the Muslim-Yadav core plus a section of Dalits plus Kurmi votes added in 2024. Its challenge is second-rung leadership after Azam Khan and the fear of vote-cutting by AIMIM-BSP. The Congress is relevant in 2–3 seats as the SP’s ally. The BSP’s Jatav vote is the swing — transfer to the SP endangers the BJP; a split advantages the BJP. The AIMIM fielded 6 candidates in 2022; more in 2027 upsets the SP’s math.
Voter and Issue Analysis:
Unemployment and paper leaks (youth anger), cane payments, electricity tariffs, law and order (“persecution” sentiment among Azam Khan’s supporters), religious disputes like Sambhal, and the Agniveer scheme. Women voters: the BJP’s welfare schemes matter in urban areas; the SP holds rural Muslim women. First-time young voters (18–25) are decisive — unemployment is their issue. Farmers: anger over delayed FRP in the cane belt.
What Could Change the Election:
First, Azam Khan’s legal situation and his family’s electoral role. Second, how many seats the AIMIM contests. Third, the Kurmi (Gangwar) community’s direction. Fourth, where the BSP’s Dalit vote goes — it polled 12.88% in 2022. Fifth, the level of polarisation from disputes like Sambhal.
Election Mandi Analysis:
Three scenarios for 50 seats. Base: Muslim votes stay consolidated with the SP, Kurmi votes stay split — SP 28–32, BJP 16–20. BJP-favourable: AIMIM-BSP cut Muslim-Dalit votes, Kurmis consolidate with the BJP — BJP 25–28. SP-favourable: the PDA fully consolidates — SP 35+. The 2017–2024 trend favours the SP (15→29 assembly, 1–2→7 Lok Sabha), but the BJP still won 29 seats in 2022 — its core is intact. Booth data from 2024 shows the BJP lost the most booths in Rampur, Moradabad and Sambhal. Fact: the SP’s strike rate in Muslim-dominated seats rose in 2022–24. Interpretation: it continues in 2027 — contingent on the Azam Khan factor and AIMIM.
Rohilkhand’s 50 seats will be UP’s most sensitive barometer in 2027. Its Muslim-Kurmi-Dalit triangle will decide who forms the government in Lucknow. From the BJP wave of 2017 to the SP’s 2024 comeback, no party has a permanent fortress here. Victory will go to whoever wins trust on both social engineering and ground issues — unemployment, cane, law and order.
FAQ
- How many seats in Rohilkhand? — About 50–55, across 11 Lok Sabha seats.
- Who won how many in 2022? — 29 each for BJP and SP in the 55-seat phase.
- What is the Azam Khan factor? — SP leader from Rampur, central despite being in jail.
- What happened in 2024? — SP 7, BJP 4 of 11.
- What is decisive in 2027? — Muslim consolidation, Kurmi-Dalit shift, AIMIM, unemployment.
Sources:
[1] The Hindu — Azam Khan: out of sight but still focus of U.P. campaign
[2] Times of India — SP claws back some lost ground in minority seats
[3] India Today — Uttar Pradesh: the last frontier
