2023 margins, historical voting patterns, 2024 Lok Sabha segment signals and the Election Mandi assessment
The 2028 Chhattisgarh Assembly election will not simply reproduce the 2023 result.
In 2023, BJP won 54 of 90 Assembly seats with 46.27% of the valid vote, while Congress won 35 seats with 42.23%. The gap in vote share was much smaller than the gap in seats.
That is why constituency-level analysis matters.
Some Congress constituencies produced very large victories in 2023 and had deep organisational or social foundations.
Others won by much narrower margins and are already showing signs of BJP recovery.
This Election Mandi article identifies ten constituencies where Congress currently has the strongest structural advantage.
This does not mean Congress is guaranteed to win them in 2028.
It means BJP may need a significant political swing to capture them.
Election Mandi Congress Strength Scale
| Score | Congress Strength |
| 9/9 | Fortress |
| 8/9 | Very Strong |
| 7/9 | Strong |
| 6/9 | Strong but Watch |
| 5/9 | Competitive Advantage |
| 4/9 | Competitive |
| 3/9 | Vulnerable |
| 2/9 | Weak |
| 1/9 | Very Weak |
The model considers:
- 2023 victory margin
- 2023 vote share
- 2018 performance
- 2024 Lok Sabha Assembly-segment result
- candidate strength
- organisation
- social equations
- tribal equation
- third-party vote
- BJP’s local strength
1. Saraipali
Congress Strength Score: 9/9
Status: Congress Fortress, with a BJP warning signal
Congress’s Saraipali position is supported by two consecutive large Assembly victories.
In 2023, Chaturi Nand defeated BJP’s Sarla Kosariya by 41,888 votes. Congress polled 100,503 votes compared with BJP’s 58,615.
The historical record is even stronger.
In 2018, Congress won Saraipali by approximately 52,288 votes.
That creates a significant historical Congress advantage.
However, the 2024 Lok Sabha election delivered an important warning.
In the Saraipali Assembly segment of the Mahasamund parliamentary constituency, BJP’s Roop Kumari Choudhary received 78,324 votes against Congress candidate Tamradhwaj Sahu’s 69,989, giving BJP a lead of roughly 8,335 votes.
This suggests that BJP has rebuilt part of its parliamentary vote base.
But one Lok Sabha result does not erase two major Assembly victories.
Election Mandi Verdict
9/9
Saraipali remains a major Congress stronghold, but BJP’s recovery means Congress cannot become complacent.
2. Khallari
Congress Strength Score: 9/9
Status: Congress Fortress
Khallari is one of Congress’s clearest strongholds.
In 2023, Dwarikadhish Yadav defeated BJP candidate Alka Chandrakar by 37,119 votes. Congress won 104,052 votes and around 57.86% of the vote.
In 2018, Congress had won the constituency by approximately 56,978 votes.
The 2024 Lok Sabha result is particularly interesting.
In the Khallari Assembly segment, BJP polled 73,471 votes while Congress polled 72,865.
The BJP advantage was only around 606 votes.
That means Congress’s huge 2023 Assembly advantage did not disappear.
The parliamentary contest became almost evenly balanced.
Election Mandi Verdict
9/9
Khallari remains one of Congress’s strongest defensive constituencies for 2028.
3. Kasdol
Congress Strength Score: 8/9
Status: Very Strong
Sandeep Sahu defeated BJP candidate Dhaniram Dhiwar by 33,765 votes in 2023.
Congress secured 136,362 votes against BJP’s 102,597.
This was a major Assembly victory.
But 2024 brought a significant BJP recovery.
In the Kasdol Assembly segment, BJP received 119,066 votes against Congress’s 102,114, creating a BJP lead of approximately 16,952 votes.
This makes Kasdol a fascinating 2028 constituency.
The central question
Was the 2023 result primarily an Assembly-specific candidate and anti-incumbency phenomenon?
Or does Congress have a durable local coalition?
The answer will determine whether BJP can convert its 2024 parliamentary lead into an Assembly victory.
Election Mandi Verdict
8/9
Congress retains a strong structural advantage, but BJP has clearly re-entered the contest.
4. Dondi Lohara
Congress Strength Score: 8/9
Status: Strong Tribal Congress Seat
Dondi Lohara is an ST-reserved constituency.
In 2023, Congress candidate Anila Bhendia won by 35,579 votes, receiving 102,762 votes against BJP’s 67,183.
The 2024 Lok Sabha result was even more encouraging for Congress.
In the Dondi Lohara Assembly segment, Congress candidate Biresh Thakur received 88,064 votes while BJP’s Bhojraj Nag received 68,787.
Congress led by approximately 19,277 votes.
This is an important contrast with several other Congress seats where BJP recovered strongly in 2024.
Election Mandi Verdict
8/9
Dondi Lohara remains one of Congress’s stronger tribal defensive seats.
5. Mohla-Manpur
Congress Strength Score: 9/9
Status: Congress Tribal Fortress
Mohla-Manpur may currently be the strongest Congress constituency in the Election Mandi model.
In 2023, Indrashah Mandavi won by 31,741 votes, receiving 77,454 votes and around 57.79% vote share.
Then came the 2024 Lok Sabha election.
Congress candidate Bhupesh Baghel received 81,140 votes in the Assembly segment.
BJP’s Santosh Pandey received 41,800.
Congress therefore led by approximately 39,340 votes.
The constituency’s demographic structure also matters. Available data describes the seat as overwhelmingly rural, with ST population estimated at around 69%.
This gives tribal leadership and local representation enormous political importance.
Election Mandi Verdict
9/9
On current evidence, Mohla-Manpur is one of the hardest Congress seats for BJP to break.
6. Rampur
Congress Strength Score: 8/9
Status: Strong Tribal Congress Seat
Rampur is a particularly interesting case because Congress regained the seat from BJP in 2023.
Phool Singh Rathiya defeated veteran BJP leader Nanki Ram Kanwar by approximately 22,859 votes. Congress received 93,647 votes and 53.11% vote share.
In 2018, however, Nanki Ram Kanwar had won Rampur by around 18,175 votes.
So this is not a permanently one-sided constituency.
But the 2024 Lok Sabha signal favoured Congress.
Congress candidate Jyotsna Mahant received 87,672 votes in the Rampur Assembly segment against BJP’s 74,584, a Congress lead of around 13,088 votes.
Election Mandi Verdict
8/9
Congress has a strong recent position, but the 2018 BJP victory means this should be called a strong seat rather than an absolute fortress.
7. Kharsia
Congress Strength Score: 7/9
Status: Strong, but BJP Recovery Is Significant
Umesh Patel defeated BJP candidate Mahesh Sahu by 21,656 votes in 2023.
Congress received 100,988 votes and 53.74% vote share.
The constituency also has a strong local political identity.
However, BJP’s 2024 parliamentary performance changed the equation.
In Kharsia Assembly segment, BJP received 94,754 votes while Congress received 80,111.
BJP led by approximately 14,643 votes.
Therefore, Kharsia is no longer a pure Congress fortress.
The seat is better classified as:
Congress stronghold with BJP recovery.
Election Mandi Verdict
7/9
Congress has the Assembly advantage, but BJP has demonstrated substantial parliamentary strength.
8. Jaijaipur
Congress Strength Score: 8/9
Status: Strong Congress Advantage
Baleshwar Sahu defeated BJP candidate Krishna Kant Chandra by 25,922 votes in 2023.
Congress received 76,747 votes while BJP received 50,825.
In 2024, Congress also retained a segment-level advantage.
Congress candidate Shivkumar Dahariya received 80,676 votes compared with BJP candidate Kamlesh Jangde’s 71,822.
Congress led by approximately 8,854 votes.
That makes Jaijaipur one of the more credible Congress defensive seats.
Election Mandi Verdict
8/9
BJP has work to do before Jaijaipur can become a realistic target.
9. Chandrapur
Congress Strength Score: 7/9
Status: Congress Advantage, BJP Closing the Gap
Ram Kumar Yadav defeated BJP candidate Bahurani Judev by 15,976 votes in 2023.
But the 2024 Lok Sabha result was almost a tie.
BJP led the Chandrapur Assembly segment by only 1,216 votes. BJP received 77,565 votes against Congress’s 76,349.
This is important.
A 15,976-vote Assembly victory was followed by a 1,216-vote parliamentary deficit.
That means the constituency is highly competitive.
Election Mandi Verdict
7/9
Congress has the stronger Assembly baseline, but BJP’s recovery makes Chandrapur a serious 2028 battleground.
10. Patan
Congress Strength Score: 7/9
Status: Candidate-Driven Stronghold
Patan is one of the most politically recognisable Congress seats in Chhattisgarh because of Bhupesh Baghel.
In 2023, Baghel defeated BJP’s Vijay Baghel by 19,723 votes, securing 95,438 votes.
But the 2024 Lok Sabha election produced a dramatically different signal.
In the Patan Assembly segment, BJP’s Vijay Baghel received 97,067 votes while Congress candidate Rajendra Sahu received 72,424.
BJP led by 24,643 votes.
This does not mean Bhupesh Baghel’s Assembly position has disappeared.
It demonstrates the importance of candidate identity.
Patan may be a classic:
candidate-driven constituency.
If Bhupesh Baghel contests again, the equation could be very different.
If Congress fields another candidate, the 2024 result becomes much more important.
Election Mandi Verdict
7/9
Strong Congress identity, but unusually dependent on candidate choice.
Congress Stronghold Ranking
| Rank | Seat | 2023 Congress Margin | 2024 Signal | Strength |
| 1 | Saraipali | 41,888 | BJP lead | 9/9 |
| 2 | Khallari | 37,119 | BJP +606 | 9/9 |
| 3 | Kasdol | 33,765 | BJP +16,952 | 8/9 |
| 4 | Dondi Lohara | 35,579 | Congress +19,277 | 8/9 |
| 5 | Mohla-Manpur | 31,741 | Congress +39,340 | 9/9 |
| 6 | Rampur | 22,859 | Congress +13,088 | 8/9 |
| 7 | Kharsia | 21,656 | BJP +14,643 | 7/9 |
| 8 | Jaijaipur | 25,922 | Congress +8,854 | 8/9 |
| 9 | Chandrapur | 15,976 | BJP +1,216 | 7/9 |
| 10 | Patan | 19,723 | BJP +24,643 | 7/9 |
The Five Strongest Congress Defences
Based on the current evidence, the five strongest Congress defensive seats are:
1. Mohla-Manpur
Congress won strongly in 2023 and led by nearly 40,000 votes in the 2024 Lok Sabha segment.
2. Khallari
Two consecutive major Assembly victories and an almost even 2024 parliamentary contest.
3. Saraipali
Huge victories in both 2018 and 2023, although BJP recovered in 2024.
4. Dondi Lohara
Strong 2023 victory plus a substantial Congress lead in 2024.
5. Rampur
Congress regained the seat in 2023 and maintained a segment-level lead in 2024.
Why 2024 Matters So Much
BJP won 10 of Chhattisgarh’s 11 Lok Sabha seats in 2024.
At the Assembly-segment level, BJP led in 68 constituencies while Congress led in 22.
This means Congress cannot simply take its 2023 Assembly victories for granted.
Three examples show why.
Patan
2023: Congress +19,723
2024: BJP +24,643
Kharsia
2023: Congress +21,656
2024: BJP +14,643
Kasdol
2023: Congress +33,765
2024: BJP +16,952
These results suggest BJP has rebuilt significant parliamentary support in several Congress-held constituencies.
But the reverse is also important.
Mohla-Manpur
Congress +39,340 in 2024.
Dondi Lohara
Congress +19,277.
Rampur
Congress +13,088.
Jaijaipur
Congress +8,854.
These seats show that Congress still has pockets of substantial organisational and social strength.
The Candidate Factor
Assembly elections are much more candidate-sensitive than a simple party comparison suggests.
Congress’s strength in these seats can be influenced by:
- Bhupesh Baghel in Patan
- Umesh Patel in Kharsia
- Dwarikadhish Yadav in Khallari
- Phool Singh Rathiya in Rampur
- Indrashah Mandavi in Mohla-Manpur
Therefore, candidate selection in 2028 could change the Election Mandi score substantially.
A strong local candidate can preserve a 7/9 seat.
A weak candidate can turn it into a 4/9 seat.
Tribal Constituencies Could Be Critical
Congress’s strongest seats include several tribal constituencies.
Mohla-Manpur, Dondi Lohara and Rampur demonstrate that Congress continues to possess meaningful tribal electoral support.
But BJP made major gains in tribal regions in 2023.
Therefore, the 2028 tribal contest will likely depend on:
- forest rights
- tribal welfare
- employment
- roads
- healthcare
- education
- local leadership
- land issues
- government scheme delivery
The party that builds the stronger local tribal leadership network may gain a significant advantage.
How BJP Could Attack These Congress Strongholds
BJP should not use the same strategy everywhere.
Phase 1: Booth mapping
Compare:
- 2018 Assembly
- 2023 Assembly
- 2024 Lok Sabha
at booth level.
Phase 2: Identify Congress weaknesses
Find the top local complaints.
Phase 3: Candidate preparation
Build the BJP face early.
Phase 4: Social coalition
Identify communities where Congress has lost vote share.
Phase 5: Welfare conversion
Translate state government schemes into constituency-level beneficiary mobilisation.
Phase 6: Digital campaign
Build a seat-specific narrative rather than generic anti-Congress messaging.
How Congress Can Protect These Seats
Congress’s biggest mistake would be to assume that a 30,000-vote victory in 2023 guarantees victory in 2028.
The party should build a permanent constituency monitoring system.
Monthly MLA Report Card
Track:
- roads
- healthcare
- education
- employment
- agriculture
- public accessibility
- constituency development
Issue Heatmap
Maintain a live list of the top 20 local complaints.
Youth Network
Build a dedicated youth structure.
Women Network
Maintain regular engagement with women voters and self-help groups.
Digital Listening
Track not only likes and shares, but also:
- recurring complaints
- local influencers
- opposition narratives
- sentiment
- issue amplification
Booth Health Score
Every booth should receive a monthly:
Green / Yellow / Red
status.
Congress Strongholds vs BJP Strongholds
The previous two articles give us a much clearer map.
| BJP Stronghold | Congress Stronghold |
| Raipur City South | Mohla-Manpur |
| Raigarh | Khallari |
| Durg City | Saraipali |
| Lormi | Dondi Lohara |
| Rajnandgaon | Rampur |
| Raipur City West | Kasdol |
| Raipur Rural | Jaijaipur |
| Dharsiwa | Kharsia |
| Korba | Chandrapur |
| Kondagaon | Patan |
This comparison demonstrates that Chhattisgarh is not simply a BJP-versus-Congress state.
It is a collection of very different constituency-level political ecosystems.
Election Mandi Final Verdict
The current Election Mandi model suggests that Congress’s strongest defensive constituencies for 2028 are:
Mohla-Manpur
Khallari
Saraipali
Dondi Lohara
Rampur
These seats combine either strong Assembly victories, strong 2024 segment-level performance, or both.
The second group is:
Kasdol
Jaijaipur
Kharsia
Chandrapur
Patan
These remain important Congress seats, but BJP has demonstrated varying degrees of recovery.
The biggest lesson from the data is this:
Congress’s 35-seat 2023 Assembly performance cannot simply be projected into 2028.
The 2024 Lok Sabha election demonstrated that BJP can recover dramatically inside several Congress-held Assembly constituencies.
At the same time, Congress retained very strong pockets, especially in Mohla-Manpur, Dondi Lohara, Rampur and parts of the Mahasamund region.
Therefore, the 2028 contest may be defined by a simple strategic question:
Can BJP convert its 2024 parliamentary recovery into Assembly-level victories, or can Congress rebuild its 2023 local coalition before the next Assembly election?
For BJP, breaking Mohla-Manpur, Khallari and Dondi Lohara would require serious grassroots work.
For Congress, protecting Patan, Kharsia and Kasdol will require reversing the parliamentary recovery seen in 2024.
And that is where the next phase of Election Mandi analysis becomes even more interesting: which Congress seats BJP can realistically capture in 2028, and which BJP seats Congress can actually flip.
